Quick Oscar Predix

This may be a cheap blog, but I'm just going to tell you who's gonna win the Oscars right here and now. Winners are in Bold.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Frost/Nixon (2008)
Milk (2008)
The Reader (2008)
Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
Quick Overview: Dissapointing category to say the least. Here are 10 movies in 2008 better than The Reader that weren't nominated: WALL-E, The Dark Knight, Iron Man, In Bruges, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, Tropic Thunder, Rachel Getting Married, The Visitor, and Let the Right One In (it's like Twilight mixed with Blade, without the suckyness).
Biggest Competition: Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (2007/I)
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon (2008)
Sean Penn for Milk (2008)
Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler (2008)
Quick Overview: Probably the best category, quality-wise. No snubs (unless you count angry old man Clint).
Biggest Competition: Anyone but Pitt, I'd say Jenkins would be a shocker but don't count him out completely.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married (2008)
Angelina Jolie for Changeling (2008)
Melissa Leo for Frozen River (2008)
Meryl Streep for Doubt (2008/I)
Kate Winslet for The Reader (2008)
Quick Overview: Haven't seen Frozen River, won't see Changeling, so those 2 I could have done without. Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky was snubbed and it saddened me. Revolutionary Road was better than The Reader but Kate was better in The Reader. Her nom here may have taken Dark Knight and my beloved WALL-E out of best pic race.
Biggest Competition: I thought of the 4 in Doubt, Meryl did the worst but she is Meryl and the Academy eats her up. So her and, maybe the best but won't win performance, Anne Hathaway.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin for Milk (2008)
Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder (2008)
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt (2008/I)
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight (2008)
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road (2008)
Quick Overview: They got it all right here. Very happy to see Shannon, the best part of Revolutionary Road, get the nom. Too bad there's no competition in this category. If they don't give it Ledger, more people will be dead.
Biggest Competition: N/A

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for Doubt (2008/I)
Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)
Viola Davis for Doubt (2008/I)
Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler (2008)
Quick Overview: Usually the weakest category, it still is. Love Adams and Tomei. Davis was good but her screen time was lacking, yet powerful. Henson is filler.
Biggest Competition: Probably Viola Davis. Unless we have Marisa Tomei-gate, Round 2


Best Achievement in Directing
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
Stephen Daldry for The Reader (2008)
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon (2008)
Gus Van Sant for Milk (2008)
Quick Overview: A bigger snub than best pic, Chris Nolan, say what you will, deserved a nomination here. Fincher and Boyle did a great job in their films and deserve to be here. But I say Nolan could be over the other THREE, especially since they are all performance-driven movies. Daldry, somehow, has made three movies (The Hours, Billy Elliot, and The Reader) and been nominated here every time. And where is Darren Aronofsky? He's a bigger reason for Rourke's performance than Daldry is for Winslet's. Sad, so sad.
Biggest Competition: David Fincher, who admittedly did a wonderful job in what I thought was an overrated movie, is the threat. If any of the other 3 win, I will declare mutiny.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Frozen River (2008): Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky (2008): Mike Leigh
In Bruges (2008): Martin McDonagh
Milk (2008): Dustin Lance Black
WALL·E (2008): Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon
Quick Overview: My favorite category this year and hardest to predict, I was THRILLED to see In Burges, WALL-E, and Happy-Go-Lucky here. Especially In Bruges. How that movie has gone so overlooked, I will never know.
Biggest Competition: I would say In Bruges and Happy Go Lucky have no chance, while I haven't seen or heard anything about Frozen River, but I'll count it out based on the that. Milk, the only Best Pic Nominee here, could steal WALL-E's non-animated feature Oscar that it deserves, especially since I'd like to see anyone else right a movie with no dialogue in the first 35 minutes and get nominated here. Fuck the haters, WALL-E ALL THE WAY! (I will look back in a month and realize this is the one category I lost)


Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Doubt (2008/I): John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon (2008): Peter Morgan
The Reader (2008): David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Simon Beaufoy
Quick Overview: Another Dark Knight snub for The Reader here. What is with all The Reader love? I don't get it. Good movie with one great performance. *Sigh* I guess that's what The Dark Knight was too. Would have liked to see Revolutionary Road here since they did as good as they could adapting that great book.
Biggest Competition: 7 of the last 10 Best Picture Winners have won in their writing category. Only Gladiator, Million Dollar Baby, and Chicago didn't win. Chicago and Doubt are theatrical pieces. Million Dollar Baby and Frost/Nixon are movies about the competitive spirit. The Reader and Gladiator were driven by performance and spectacle. Curious Case is the competition but I see it losing out on most of the minor categories and splitting the minor ones with The Dark Knight.

Movie with the Most Oscars: Slumdog, with 5
There Will Be Jokes About: Nixon and Indians
There Won't Be Jokes About: Heath Ledger and Doubt