The 2009 Oscar Predix

You know it. You love it. It needs no introduction. (Well, except for this little thing) These are the 2009 Oscar Predictions. Get ready. For the noise.

Best Supporting Actress
The Favorites: In a relatively weak category every year, its more of the same this year. My favs are Penelope Cruz for Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Viola Davis for the stage-to-screen adaptation of Doubt (its about a priest pedo!).
In the Middle of the Pack: Marisa Tomei (yeah, she's still alive) is getting pretty good reviews for Darren Aronofsky's (Requiem for a Dream) "The Wrestler." Also big-woman extrordinaire Kathy Bates (if she gets any screen time) in Kate and Leo's reunion in "Revolutionary Road."
Upset Special: I don't know but I hear good things from Vera Farminga in "Nothing but the Truth" and ("Yup, She's Alive!" Alert!) Kim Basinger for The Burning Plain, two films I know nothing about.
The Nom's: Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Viola Davis (Doubt), Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler), Vera Farmina (Nothing But the Truth), Kathy Bates (Revolutionary Road)
The Winner: From what I hear about the play, the few scenes Davis has in "Doubt" should win her the trophy. Viola Davis, for the win.

Best Supporting Actor
The Favorites: Well, obviously there's Heath Ledger for TDK who is more of a lock than Brinks Home Security. Martin Sheen in another stage-to-screen adaptation "Frost/Nixon" should get a nom, as it's a pretty baity role and he got snubbed for playing Tony Blair in "The Queen."
In the Middle of the Pack: For one, you have Josh Brolin for the Sean Penn Show "Milk" about the first gay senator to get elected. Then you got John Malkovich in the Angelina Jolie Show "Changeling" which you've probably heard about. Not on the list? Zac Efron for High School Musical 3. Who will hopefully be dead by the time this is published.
Upset Special: After last year's god-awful snub for "Into the Wild" watch out for Emilie (is it pronounced Emily or Eh-meal?). Also be careful to watch out for either Liev Schreiber or Jamie Bell in the "I'm really excited to see and it better not suck" film "Defiance".
The Nom's: Heath Ledger (TDK), Martin Sheen (Frost/Nixon), John Malkovich (Changeling), Josh Brolin (Milk), Jamie Bell (Defiance)
The Winner: Let's be honest, the other four should be happy to be nominated. I'd bet my car that Ledger takes this home. Oh, wait. Is buried with it? Too soon?

Best Actress
The Favorites: Angelina Jolie is pretty much a lock for her "The Academy Eats this shit up" role in Eastwood's "Changeling." Meryl Streep in, what looks like a winner, "Doubt" playing a nun? Check. And Kate Winslet with Leo has her "anchor" in "Revolutionary Road"? Yeah, those 3 are in like gin in my tonic.
In the Middle of the Pack: Sally Hawkins is getting good press for "Happy Go Lucky", so she could get a nom if she's....lucky. Also, Disney Princess Anne Hatheway is getting great press from her "addicts win statues" role in "Rachel Getting Married."
Upset Special: I don't see much possibility for one but if I had to pick someone it'd be Vannesa Anne Hudgens for High School Musical 3. Ha, sorry. I was kidding to the highest degree. Emily Blunt is a possibility for "The Young Victoria" but it matters little this year.
The Nom's: Angelina (Changeling), Meryl Streep (Doubt), Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road), Sally Hawkins (Happy Go Lucky), Anne Hatheway (Rachel Getting Married)
The Winner: I'd say its between Streep and Angelina for the top honors and with Angie's role being more of an academy-friendly role and more of a central character, I'd think they'll give it to Angie.

Best Actor
The Favorites: Sean Penn playing a gay senator in "Milk" = lock. Note: playing an addict, a gay, a retard, or historical figure in a bio-pic increases your chances of getting nominated tenfold. Frank Langella for playing the infamous "Tricky Dick" Nixon in Frost/Nixon. See: note above.
In the Middle of the Pack: Leo DiCaprio for his long awaited reunion with Kate in "Revolutionary Road" will probably pick up a nom. The Academy loves him. I think. Also, I'm really grappling with Aronofsky's "The Wrestler" and its star, Mickey Rourke is getting raves.
Upset Special: Depending on David Fincher's "Benjamin Button", Brad Pitt could sneak in here. Also look out for Phillip Seymour Hoffman for his role as a pedo-priest (read: a priest) in "Doubt". The Academy wants his acting babies.
The Nom's: Sean Penn (Milk), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon), Leo (Revolutionary Road), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
The Winner: It really depends on how good The Wrestler really is and how well Langella can pull off Trick Dick. If either are less than spectacular, Sean Penn takes it for "Milk". Go gay for an Oscar. That's so baity Sean.

Best Director
The Favorites: Right now, there's no clear favorites but I'll give you my top 2 at the moment. I think the Academy will be eager to nominate David Fincher for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and it looks like the film has the star power (Pitt and Blanchett) to get it done. Also, with the subject matter and Penn's star power, Gus Van Sant has a real chance to "Milk" the Oscars for all they are worth.
In the Middle of the Pack: After his snub for "Moulin Rouge" back in the day, "Australia" looks like a film that Baz Luhrmann may get a nom for, as it looks like it was a tough shoot. The Academy loves Clint and they love Ron Howard, so look out for them in "Changeling" and "Frost/Nixon", respectively.
Upset Special: With no lock in this category, there's bound to be a surprise or two. Chris Nolan for The Dark Knight could very easily happen. So could Sam Mendes for "Revolutionary Road" or dare I say a Davidson-like upset for "The Wrestler"'s Darren Aronofsky (here's hoping).
The Nom's: David Fincher (Benjamin Button), Gus Van Sant (Milk), Baz Luhrmann (Australia), Clint Eastwood (Changeling), Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
The Winner: I honestly do not have the faintest clue as to who will win this race. I'd love for Chris Nolan to win (at least out of that field) or even David Fincher (he of "Fight Club", "Zodiac", and "Seven"). So I'll go with Fincher because I think, out of those films, "Benjamin Button" has the chance to be the best.

BEST PICTURE
The Favorites: Sean Penn's "Milk' is my only sure thing at the moment. Even that though could have a few hiccups down the stretch. Also, "The Dark Knight" is probably going to get in. It's just too big a film for the Academy not to vote for.
In the Middle of the Pack: Leo and Kate could get a best pic nom for "Revolutionary Road." There's a possibility that "Curious Case of Benjamin Button" could very well sneak in with a nom, but it might not be the Academy's cup o' tea. Other than that, I'm stumped.
Upset Special: Anything from Aronofsky's "The Wrestler, "Australia" from Baz, Howard's "Frost/Nixon", "Doubt," or even Clint's "Changeling" could make it to the top spot. But what you really should be looking at is Danny Boyle, he of "Trainspotting" and "28 Days Later...", and his film "Slumdog Millionaire." It would have to be a major upset for it to make it, but it could make a few waves, as it looks very heartwarming and is based on a true story of redemption and hope, which always gives a film a boost. (see: Shawshank)
The Nom's: Milk, The Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Winner: It really all depends on how good/bad all these films actually are but right now, the film with the best buzz and best subject matter the academy will go for is "Milk". So that's my pick. FOR NOW....


That's it for this year's predix. Hope you enjoyed the look at this year's movies. Next up will be a more serious, historical blogging that you may enjoy. Stay hungry for it (hint: that's a hint). Until then, Ik zal u spoedig zien!